I have no idea how to intro this, other than: PAIGE ROBINSON IS GOOD AT PLAYING BASKETBALL.
Illinois State picked up a commitment from the 2021 DII national player of the year, and she’s got a chance to be special at this level too. Breakdown coming in a minute, but we gotta start with some context because it’s easy for a casual fan to see that Division II label and be skeptical about how good a player can be. First off, Paige came from Drury. Drury isn’t just any DII team – it’s been an almost UConn-level powerhouse for the last nine years. The Panthers just had a “down year” in which they went 32-5 and finished second in Her Hoop Stats ratings. In fact, they were first or second in all four years of Paige’s career there. In her first three years they went 91-3, and two of those three losses came in the Final Four and the national title game. They were 32-0 before covid hit in 2020. In other words, they’ve been one step short of untouchable in DII. And the gap between DII and DI is smaller than a lot of people probably think. I’d bet on Drury beating 100-150 DI teams. Oh, and Paige played with Terrion Moore there. Remember how good Terrion was for Illinois State? She honestly might have been the fourth-best player on that Drury team. So anyway, P-Rob = legit DI player too. Good enough that she got some power conference looks actually. And one of her biggest CBB Analytics statistical comps – Lexy Hightower – went DII to Big 12 and still put up deep shooting numbers that seriously look made up.
That Paige chose Illinois State in order to be closer to home is a seismic win for Redbird Nation. Okay, now the breakdown stuff. Strengths To be clear, there is no way this list can be exhaustive. You don’t win national player of the year awards by only being good at a few things. These are just some of the top ones that stand out to me, since no one (including myself) has the attention span for a comprehensive novel about everything P-Rob can do on a basketball court. Reading ball screens When I’m watching film of a ball-dominant guard, I generally like to start with pick-and-roll situations. It’s the single most important action in today’s game. I was not surprised at all to find that Drury ran quite a few of these for Paige and that she excelled in them. The best guards will be able to beat any coverage you throw at them, and Paige has proven she can do that. For starters, she pulls up on drops/ice with regularity (and back in her freshman/sophomore years when defenses were still going under on her more often, she killed that too). She also reads when to hit the roller. Or the shaker. Making tough shots Paige is a pure creator, the type of player you give the ball to when the play breaks down with 10 on the clock. The more P-Rob I watched, the more times I found myself thinking, “Wait how did she get that one to go?” A couple of these are deeeeeeep. Others are extremely contested. Then there are the ones that look almost goofy. But they all go in. Let’s pause my favorite one for a second. Caitlin Clark makes shots with defenders’ hands right there. Who else though? Shots like those are why she was the third-highest scoring player in the portal across all three divisions. She shot above 70% at the rim in each of the last three seasons. C’mon now. You may have noticed she has a signature spin like JuJu, except hers is the opposite direction and is usually more of a plant and turnaround fade. I literally practice this exact shot at the rec sometimes just for fun, and even with no defense I’m not making it anywhere close to as often as Paige. (Though to be fair I’m also not good…) That’s the type of shot that’s scientifically impossible to defend unless you have a significant height advantage without giving up lateral quickness. Come to think of it, I hope I get to watch Kate Bullman try to guard that shot in practice at some point. Cutting Admittedly, there’s less film on this than on some other stuff – moving off-ball doesn’t come into play as much for players who have the ball in their hands all the time. When she gets the opportunity, however, she does a terrific job at getting behind the defense on plays like these. Weaknesses Lol what an unnecessary section. Okay but for real, her CBB Analytics page and Her Hoop Stats page are full of green numbers with virtually no red ones. Go see for yourself. Yeah, I’m exaggerating a little bit – every human being has a weakness somewhere. Like I guess if we’re being nitpicky, she bites on the occasional pump fake and kinda gets beat off the dribble sometimes when her player rejects a screen. But the latter is at least a little bit due to how Drury guards those, plus she also has the ability to recover and Bullmanize them. So whatever. Paige’s stats are eye-popping across the board, so rather than have a mostly empty section here, might as well use this part to nerd out on the numbers a bit. It’s already wild how effective she is at her volume. (I mean, we’re talking Azzi Fudd efficiency with JuJu usage!) But then you throw in her rebounding and shot blocking from the guard position (5.8 and 1.1 in her NPOY campaign – who blocks more than a shot a game at 5-10??) And if that wasn’t enough, she hit multiple threes a game every year at Drury and forced more turnovers than she committed: She was the only player among the 400+ in the DII transfer portal to average over two steals and under two turnovers per game. Drury’s full court man press probably helped the steal totals, but it’s noteworthy either way. The numbers will all regress from DII to DI, I get it, but you could basically cut them in half and it’d still be a decently productive statline. To go back to the film to wrap up here, she wasn’t even bad when she got the rare opportunity to post up. I doubt we see much of this with Illinois State, but still – she’s the definition of do-it-all. Verdict There’s not much else to say about Paige; she’s about as complete a guard as you’ll find. Call me crazy, but I think she’s got a little Rhyne Howard in her. A much smaller Rhyne Howard lite that is. Of course, no profile would be complete without a little social media research. Okay fine, casual social media stalk. Nothing crazy, but enough to find that she liked a bunch of Dawn Staley fashion content, which automatically means she’s a cool person. Obviously, Paige isn’t about to score 20 points a game and win national player of the year at this level. I don’t wanna hype her up to the point of putting too much unfair pressure on her – it’s important to be realistic. We can be realistic and excited at the same time though. To me, that’s the correct outlook.
Data from Synergy, CBB Analytics and Her Hoop Stats.
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